Finance
28 stories
Puma Forecasts Another Year of Losses, Scraps Dividend
Puma SE forecasts continued losses for 2026 and eliminates dividend as it clears inventory, targeting profitability return in 2027. The German sportswear brand faces ongoing challenges with unsold sneakers and apparel.
Impacts corporate earnings markets and potential consumer discretionary sector prediction contracts on platforms tracking retail performa...
Nvidia Fails to Impress Investors With Forecast | The Asia Trade 2/26/2026
Nvidia's guidance disappoints investors despite strong results, signaling potential slowdown in AI chip demand growth. Stock reactions may ripple across tech sector valuations.
Track tech stock and AI-related markets for volatility as Nvidia often serves as bellwether for sector sentiment.
Minimum Viable Liquidity
Prediction markets require different liquidity dynamics than traditional assets. Kalshi market-making insights from 2022 CPI trading era reveal unique optimal liquidity levels for event contracts.
Understand market-making strategies to identify when contracts are over/under-liquid and exploit mispricings.
Regulatory greenfield
CFTC regulatory stance on prediction markets shifted dramatically from blocking to supporting. US futures exchanges expanded from 15 in 2019 to growing competitive landscape by 2026.
Anticipate new exchange launches and contract offerings as regulatory environment becomes more permissive.
Job listing: Associate Editor
Silver Bulletin hiring associate editor for expanded 2026 midterms and World Cup coverage plus new models. No direct prediction market relevance.
Prediction markets don’t bend reality
Reflexivity theory doesn't apply to prediction markets since prices represent probabilities, not fundamental values. Market prices don't influence underlying event outcomes like traditional assets.
Avoid falsely trading on momentum; prediction market prices can't create self-fulfilling prophecies like stocks.
🔮 Bond Market
Research shows Fed rate decision odds on Polymarket crystallize 26 days before announcements. Current market prices 99.6% chance Powell leaves rates unchanged at today's meeting.
Inside Job
Insider trading concerns arise after hypothetical Maduro extraction scenario on Polymarket. Information asymmetry and early access to news creates difficult regulatory and ethical questions.
Monitor unusual pre-announcement price movements that may signal insider information before news breaks.
It's Your Job To Keep Your Secrets
Critics target Polymarket with insider trading claims via CFTC Rule 180.1. Hanson receives dozens of media inquiries as opponents coordinate strategy to challenge the prediction market platform's legality.
My favorite Kalshi market was deeply flawed
Kalshi tariff markets revealed flaws in contract design. Impact markets proposed as evolution beyond simple binary prediction markets to better capture policy consequences.
Evaluate contract structure quality before trading; flawed rules create exploitation opportunities or unexpected losses.
🔮Just Call Them
Hedge fund manager Chris DeMuth Jr. shares unconventional research tactics including surveilling government offices. Discusses information gathering methods applicable to event-driven trading and prediction markets.
Actually, the price is the product
CME FedWatch demonstrates how prediction market prices become the product, influencing real decisions. Fed rate markets show prediction markets' utility beyond just trading venue.
Recognize when prediction markets achieve mainstream influence; liquidity and attention spike as adoption grows.
Numbers aren't events
Kalshi-StockX partnership enables trading on Labubu toy prices, pushing beyond binary YES/NO contracts. Numerical outcome markets expand prediction market capabilities significantly.
Explore new contract types beyond binaries for trading opportunities as exchanges innovate market structures.
🔮 WHO’S NEXT?
Fed insider analyzes bond market reaction to potential Powell replacements, suggesting markets misprice risk. Discussion relevant to Polymarket's Fed Chair prediction markets.
Double Dose of Texas Trades, Kalshi Valuation Surges to $11B Despite Nevada Setback
Kalshi valuation surges to $11B despite Nevada regulatory setback. Trading opportunities in best album 2025 and college football playoff markets, plus Texas-focused plays.
Watch Kalshi-Polymarket-Robinhood competition reshaping industry valuations and market share as regulatory battles continue.
So you want to break into the prediction market industry…
Guide for breaking into prediction market industry as space heats up. LinkedIn inquiries surging as prediction markets become white-hot business sector.
Understand competitive landscape and talent flows; industry growth signals sustained market expansion ahead.
I was wrong
Author retracts thesis that sportsbooks would become major prediction market customers for hedging. Sports betting financialization won't drive demand as previously expected.
Adjust liquidity expectations; institutional sportsbook hedging won't materialize as demand driver for markets.
A Momentarily Comprehensive Guide to Prediction Markets
Comprehensive guide to prediction markets focusing on Kalshi and Polymarket's race to build $100B+ asset class. Examines misalignment between media coverage and investor views.
Understand competitive dynamics between major platforms to anticipate market share shifts and liquidity flows.
Betfair had the wrong passport
Betfair Exchange's UK market underperformance wasn't due to exchange model but nationality/regulatory issues. Exchange structure itself remains viable for prediction markets despite Betfair's struggles.
Evaluate exchange vs. sportsbook models correctly; Betfair's failure doesn't invalidate prediction market exchanges.
The fish are the product
Kalshi parlay experiment reveals exchange economics differ from traditional metrics. Maker-taker dynamics and retail 'fish' participation drive value differently than Wall Street exchanges.
Identify value misunderstood by traditional analysts; retail participation creates opportunities pros overlook.
The old guard vs. the young blood
CFTC/SEC harmonization roundtable exposed tensions between incumbent regulators and prediction market innovators. Legacy institutions resist new market structures while startups push boundaries.
Track regulatory battles to anticipate which contract types face approval delays or accelerated clearance.
A Technical Guide To Prediction Markets
Comprehensive technical guide to prediction markets covers typology of forecasting projects. Sometimes called 'information markets' or 'event futures' where participants trade on future events.
Understand prediction market mechanics and project categories to improve trading strategy fundamentals.
I lost $30k after misunderstanding Kalshi's void rules. Here's how to fix them.
Trader lost $30k misunderstanding Kalshi void rules when markets cancel. Contract resolution ambiguities create significant risk beyond directional outcome predictions.
Read void rules carefully before entering positions; rule misinterpretations cause catastrophic losses unrelated to forecasting.
What the Third Circuit just signaled in Kalshi’s sports market preemption case
Third Circuit oral arguments in Kalshi sports market case signal positive outlook for exchange. Federal preemption doctrine could override state gambling regulators' objections to sports prediction markets.
Position for sports market expansion if Kalshi wins; legal victory unlocks major new contract category.
The legal doctrine at the heart of the sports prediction market debate
CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets collides with state gambling authority in sports contracts. Legal doctrine clash may reach Supreme Court, determining federal vs. state control.
Assess long-term regulatory risk; Supreme Court ruling would definitively resolve sports market legal uncertainty.
Underdog’s novel regulatory maneuver lets them deliver Same Game Parlays to 16 new states
Underdog launched Same Game Parlays in 16 new states including CA and TX using CFTC-regulated moneylines spliced with fantasy elements. Novel regulatory approach bypasses sports betting restrictions.
Explore newly accessible markets in non-sports-betting states where regulatory arbitrage created openings.
Parlays won’t scale until prediction markets solve this microstructure problem
Parlay scaling faces microstructure problems from full cash-backing requirements that prevent FTX-style collapses but complicate market-making. Cross-margining limitations constrain liquidity provision.
Expect wider spreads on parlays; structural constraints make multi-leg contracts harder to price efficiently.
Kalshi’s new liquidity incentives could be the dawn of the garage-band market maker
Kalshi filed with CFTC for direct maker rebates, following Polymarket's model. Liquidity incentives aim to attract garage-band market makers and tighten spreads across contracts.
Capitalize on rebates to subsidize market-making strategies; tighter spreads reduce execution costs for traders.
