Best Prediction Markets in 2026

Polymarket has established itself as the undisputed leader in prediction market liquidity, particularly for political and macroeconomic event markets. During the 2024 US election, Polymarket hosted over $500 million in open interest on the presidential race, making it a globally recognized forecasting benchmark. The platform's central limit order book architecture and deep liquidity pool attract sophisticated market makers and institutional traders, resulting in tight spreads and accurate prices. However, US residents are explicitly prohibited from using the platform, and CFTC enforcement actions against Polymarket's leadership in 2024 highlight the real legal risk for American users.

Kalshi is the safest and most legitimate option for US residents seeking regulated access to prediction markets. After a two-year regulatory process, it became the first prediction market to receive CFTC DCM approval in 2020, establishing a legal precedent for the industry. Kalshi's platform is designed with both retail and institutional users in mind, offering a familiar brokerage-like experience alongside sophisticated event contract trading. Its catalog is particularly strong for US economic data events, where professional traders use Kalshi contracts to hedge macro exposures or speculate on Fed decisions and inflation data. Kalshi has been growing its liquidity substantially and secured funding from Sequoia Capital.

PredictIt launched in 2014 under a CFTC no-action letter allowing it to operate for academic research purposes through Victoria University of Wellington. It became the go-to platform for US residents during the 2016-2022 era when Kalshi wasn't yet available. The $850 per-contract cap and high fee structure make it less suitable for serious traders, but it remains popular for political market enthusiasts who appreciate its established community and history. The CFTC's 2022 attempt to revoke PredictIt's no-action letter created regulatory uncertainty that hasn't fully resolved, though the platform continues operating.

Metaculus is the premier non-financial forecasting platform and has achieved remarkable accuracy on a diverse range of questions including COVID-19 modeling, AI development timelines, and geopolitical events. Unlike financial prediction markets where money is the incentive, Metaculus participants are motivated by intellectual challenge and reputation. The platform uses a Bayesian aggregation algorithm that weights contributors by their historical accuracy, producing a skill-weighted community forecast that has outperformed simple averages. Metaculus is the best choice for anyone who wants to participate in serious forecasting without financial risk, or who wants to track long-horizon questions where financial markets wouldn't have sufficient participants.

Manifold Markets occupies a unique niche as the most open and accessible prediction market — anyone can create a market on any topic, and participation is completely free. This openness has generated a diverse catalog including markets on sports, celebrity gossip, local community events, and highly specific personal predictions. While the absence of real financial stakes means Manifold prices are less reliable than financially-motivated markets, the platform serves a valuable social function as a structured way to discuss and quantify uncertainty about future events. Manifold has introduced Sweepstakes mode that allows real-money prizes, and the platform's charity donation feature adds a prosocial element.

ForecastEx received CFTC Designated Contract Market (DCM) approval as the second US-regulated prediction market exchange, focusing specifically on economic and financial data releases. Its narrow focus on macro events makes it particularly relevant for financial professionals who want to hedge specific economic exposures or speculate on data outcomes in a regulated venue. ForecastEx represents the institutional end of the prediction market spectrum — its products are designed as genuine financial instruments rather than entertainment markets. As it grows its liquidity and market catalog, ForecastEx will become increasingly important as a complement to Kalshi in the regulated US prediction market ecosystem.