The Rally That Couldn't Stick
Bitcoin punched through $74,000 on Wednesday — its strongest level in a month — only to surrender the entire breakout within 48 hours. By Friday, BTC was trading back near $65,000 as stocks tumbled and gold rallied, leaving traders who chased the rally nursing fresh losses. "Bitcoin liquidity analysis described bulls as in control after the trip to $74,000, but a support retest could take BTC price action almost $10,000 lower," according to recent analysis cited by Cointelegraph.
The collapse is sharper than it looks. Bitcoin futures open interest — a proxy for institutional positioning — has fallen to 2024 lows on a month-over-month basis, suggesting professional traders are stepping back rather than doubling down. "BTC price upside lost momentum after hitting one-month highs as more traders joined bearish predictions for Bitcoin's next move," Cointelegraph reported Thursday. Prediction market traders have flipped bearish too: "Bitcoin now projected to crash below $45k this year. 52% chance," Polymarket posted Wednesday, just as the rally was fading.
Saylor Buys the Dip (Again)
Michael Saylor's Strategy added 3,015 Bitcoin at $67,700 apiece in its 101st purchase — another buy below cost basis that lifted total holdings to 720,737 BTC worth roughly $204 million. "JUST IN: Michael Saylor buys $200M of Bitcoin," Kalshi announced. The purchase came as ETF flows turned positive again: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $462 million on Wednesday alone, with BlackRock's IBIT leading at $307 million. That extended a three-day inflow streak totaling $1.1 billion — yet the price is already giving it all back.
Analysts are split on what happens next. Fabian Dori, CIO at Sygnum, told CoinDesk that "a short-term liquidity squeeze is driving crypto's slump, with further downside possible, though improving macro data and fundamentals could speed a recovery." VanEck CEO Jan van Eck argued that Bitcoin is "forming a bottom as the 4-year cycle ends," suggesting analysts have been "overcomplicating recent Bitcoin price action." But on-chain data shows 43% of holders are still underwater, and traders are favoring put options — a sign they expect more pain before any sustained recovery.
What Prediction Markets See Next
The technical picture is deteriorating fast. Bitcoin's 50-day moving average just crossed below its 200-day moving average — the so-called "death cross" — which has historically preceded an average 35% slide over the following month. Data from Glassnode shows an "air pocket" above $72,000 with little supply, but traders who expected a "quick run to $80,000" now look premature. Instead, the setup points to a retest of $65,000 support, with some calling for a drop toward $60,000 if that level breaks.
Prediction market traders are pricing this environment accordingly. While Polymarket briefly showed traders betting on a recovery past $75,000 earlier this week, sentiment has since reversed. The collapse in altcoin social chatter — now at a 2-year low — suggests retail hasn't returned, and institutional flows remain fragile despite the recent ETF bounce. If $65,000 breaks, the next meaningful support sits closer to $60,000, where several analysts say Bitcoin could finally form a sustainable bottom.
