Democrats flood the polls in red Texas
In Cameron County — the mostly Hispanic South Texas border region that Trump won by 6 points in 2024 — 71% of primary voters pulled Democratic ballots Tuesday night. That wasn't a typo. In Collin County, the rapidly growing Dallas suburb that hasn't backed a Democratic presidential candidate since LBJ, 57% of primary votes went to Democrats. In Tarrant County, the Fort Worth metro area Trump won comfortably, Democrats again hit 57%. State Rep. James Talarico didn't just beat Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic Senate primary — he obliterated her by more than 100,000 votes, winning nearly twice her vote total in Cameron County and outspending her $25 million to $5 million in ads.
The question Texas Democrats have asked since 1994, the last time they won a statewide race: Is this finally the year?
GOP civil war sets up Cornyn-Paxton slugfest
Sen. John Cornyn avoided the GOP's worst-case scenario Tuesday — he wasn't defeated outright by Attorney General Ken Paxton — but he didn't avoid the nightmare entirely. The two now head to a May 26 runoff in what's already the most expensive primary in American history, having burned through close to $100 million before a single runoff ad airs. National Republicans are sweating: they're worried Paxton, a conservative firebrand facing multiple criminal indictments, could lose the general election or force the party to dump millions into a state that should be deep red. Rep. Wesley Hunt finished a distant third. Now Cornyn and Paxton will spend the next two months fighting for President Trump's endorsement — a prize that could decide the race.
Billionaire vendetta takes down Crenshaw
Texas banker Robert Marling wrote $675,000 in checks to a super PAC with one mission: destroy Dan Crenshaw's career. It worked. State Rep. Steve Toth defeated the four-term congressman in the Republican primary for Texas' 2nd District, making Crenshaw the first House incumbent to lose in 2026. Marling's money — accounting for roughly two-thirds of the anti-Crenshaw super PAC's spending — bankrolled a relentless barrage of mailers and TV ads hammering the congressman for breaking with Trump. "Short of Robert's involvement, Dan would be reelected," one person involved in the primary told Axios. The feud's origin story is disputed: sources close to Marling say it started when Crenshaw demanded audience members wear masks at Marling's conservative youth summit years ago, then later threatened to put Marling's "head through a wall." Crenshaw's team denies both claims.
Talarico's win: style over ideology
Talarico framed himself as the candidate who could win over Trump voters, talking about standing up to billionaires and taking on Big Pharma. Crockett, by contrast, boasted she "drives the president crazy" and highlighted Trump's insults of her. Former Vice President Kamala Harris — eyeing a 2028 run — recorded a robocall for Crockett calling her a "fighter." It wasn't enough. Talarico's victory is being hailed as a win for moderate style, not necessarily moderate policy. He's a populist seminarian who spoke about economic issues. Crockett was an anti-Trump brawler.
What Texas turnout means for November
Democratic operatives are pointing to the turnout data as evidence of a real opening. In county after county — especially Hispanic-majority South Texas and wealthy North Texas suburbs — Democrats made up a dramatically larger share of primary voters than in 2024. Talarico dominated in majority-Hispanic counties. But the usual caveats apply: Texas hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994. Republicans still hold all statewide offices. And Trump remains broadly popular in the state. The May 26 runoffs will test whether GOP infighting creates an opening, or whether Texas Democrats are just touching the football again before fumbling on the goal line.
What to watch
The Cornyn-Paxton runoff will be the most expensive and nastiest Senate primary in modern Texas history. Trump's eventual endorsement could decide the race — both candidates will spend the next two months lobbying for it. On the Democratic side, Talarico faces a general election test: can a candidate who talks about winning Trump voters actually do it? The May 26 runoffs will also include Rep. Chip Roy competing for Attorney General and Rep. Christian Menefee facing Rep. Al Green in Houston's 18th District. Markets are pricing Texas Senate control as a genuine toss-up for the first time in a generation.