The Gamble on a Perfect Season's Wreckage
MAC commissioner Jon Steinbrecher is making a bracketology prediction that would have seemed insane 48 hours ago: his conference will get two NCAA tournament bids for the first time in 27 years — even though Miami (Ohio) just became the first team in modern college basketball history to go 31-0 in the regular season and then lose before winning the conference tournament. The RedHawks fell to UMass in the MAC quarterfinals, turning what should have been a coronation into a selection committee nightmare.
Steinbrecher's confidence hinges on Miami's body of work being too strong to ignore despite the upset. The RedHawks entered conference tournament week as a lock for an at-large bid, but history suggests otherwise: mid-major darlings who stumble early in their conference tournaments often get left out when the committee makes final cuts. The MAC hasn't received multiple bids since 1999, when Kent State and Miami both made the field. Now Steinbrecher is publicly lobbying for the committee to break that streak based on one team's regular season dominance and another team's presumed automatic qualifier status.
Bubble Teams Making Last-Minute Cases
Auburn coach Steven Pearl joined the Selection Sunday lobbying effort after his team blew a double-digit second-half lead to Tennessee in the SEC tournament quarterfinals. Pearl argued Auburn "deserves" an NCAA bid despite the loss, adding to the growing chorus of coaches making final pitches as the bracket takes shape. Meanwhile, Hofstra ended a 25-year tournament drought by defeating Monmouth 75-69 for the CAA championship, and UMBC returned to March Madness for the first time since their historic upset of Virginia in 2018, with DJ Armstrong Jr. dropping 33 points in a 74-59 win over Vermont in the America East final.
The final AP poll before Selection Sunday shows Duke, Arizona, and Michigan holding the top three spots, with Florida and Houston cracking the top five. But the real drama sits on the bubble, where teams like Auburn and Miami (Ohio) are counting votes while conference tournament champions like Hofstra and UMBC punch automatic tickets. UCLA got a boost when Tyler Bilodeau was cleared to return from a knee strain in time for the tournament, potentially shifting their seeding prospects.
What to Watch: Mid-Major Chaos and Committee Precedent
Selection Sunday will reveal whether Steinbrecher's two-bid prediction holds up — and whether the committee values Miami's undefeated regular season over their early tournament exit. The bigger question: does the MAC commissioner's public confidence signal actual back-channel intelligence from the selection committee, or is this wishful thinking designed to protect his conference's credibility? If Miami gets left out despite 31 regular season wins, it would set a brutal precedent for mid-majors who can't close the deal in March. Watch for how many SEC teams make the field versus Big 12 and Big Ten entries — conference strength metrics will determine whether bubble teams like Auburn survive the final cuts.