The Numbers Tell a Story
President Trump's job approval has fallen to 44% among registered voters, down 3 points since March, according to a new NBC News poll released Monday. Fifty-four percent now disapprove of his performance — a majority rejection that arrives as his official Solana meme coin has collapsed 96% from its peak, hitting its lowest price since launch.
Market Signals Beyond Prediction Platforms
The meme coin crash offers a real-time sentiment gauge that traditional polling can't match. While prediction markets typically focus on election outcomes, retail crypto traders betting on Trump-branded tokens are effectively pricing his political capital in real time. The coin's collapse suggests traders see his brand value eroding faster than headline approval numbers indicate. The token's trajectory mirrors the polling trend — a steady bleed rather than a sudden crash.
Still Outpolling Democratic Rivals
Despite the approval slide, Trump maintains a favorability edge over potential Democratic challengers. The same NBC poll found 41% hold favorable views of Trump overall, compared to just 34% for former Vice President Kamala Harris and 31% for California Governor Gavin Newsom. That 7-point favorability gap over Harris matters for 2028 speculation — traders pricing future election markets should note the difference between job approval (what voters think of his current performance) and favorability (whether they like him personally).
What November Tells Us
Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson discussed the approval drop's implications for the midterms in a New York Times opinion piece, alongside E.J. Dionne Jr. and Robert Siegel. The concern for Republicans: approval ratings in the mid-40s historically correlate with seat losses for the president's party. Trump entered his term with approval in the high 40s, giving him limited cushion. A slide below 44% would put Republicans in serious midterm jeopardy, especially in swing districts where Trump's 2024 margins were narrow.
The Approval Rating Tracker
Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin now tracks Trump's approval ratings alongside historical comparisons going back to Truman. The tracker provides context that single polls can't — showing where Trump sits relative to other presidents at equivalent points in their terms. Silver's aggregation approach smooths out individual poll noise, making week-to-week movements more interpretable for traders trying to price political event markets. The current 44% figure sits below Trump's 2017-2021 average, when he rarely broke 45% approval but maintained a stable floor around 42%.