Forecasting

Forecasting is the discipline of assigning probabilities to future events and tracking the accuracy of those predictions over time. While prediction markets are one mechanism for aggregating forecasts, the term more broadly encompasses structured forecasting communities, superforecasting methodology, and quantitative modeling approaches.

The superforecasting movement, popularized by psychologist Philip Tetlock and his Good Judgment Project, demonstrated that ordinary people trained in probabilistic thinking can consistently outperform experts and intelligence analysts in forecasting accuracy. Key principles include breaking large questions into smaller resolvable pieces, updating beliefs incrementally as new evidence arrives, and maintaining calibration — ensuring that your 70% predictions are right about 70% of the time.

Platforms like Metaculus and Good Judgment Open host non-financial forecasting communities where participants earn reputation scores rather than money. These platforms sometimes outperform financial prediction markets on questions with lower commercial interest, because participants are motivated by intellectual challenge rather than profit opportunity.