Polymarket

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform founded in 2020 that lets users trade event contracts on political, economic, sports, and cultural outcomes. It operates on the Polygon (Matic) blockchain and uses USDC as its settlement currency, allowing anyone worldwide (outside the US per its terms of service) to participate without traditional financial intermediaries.

Polymarket rose to global prominence during the 2024 US presidential election cycle, becoming a widely cited source of real-time probability estimates for political outcomes. At its peak, the platform hosted hundreds of millions of dollars in election-related open interest, with media outlets and politicians citing its markets as predictive signals. Its accuracy during the 2024 election — giving Donald Trump roughly 64% odds on election eve — versus polls showing a near-tie generated widespread discussion about prediction markets as forecasting tools.

The platform uses the UMA Protocol for decentralized oracle resolution and a central limit order book (CLOB) for trading, which provides the execution quality and liquidity depth needed for sophisticated traders. Despite its terms restricting US users, the CFTC and DOJ investigated Polymarket in 2024 over potential US market access, reflecting ongoing regulatory tension. The platform raised over $70M in funding from major crypto and venture investors.